Understanding the True Implications of a 30% Chance of Rain

Understanding the True Implications of a 30% Chance of Rain

Are you confused about the weather forecast? Well, you’re not alone. It turns out that those percentages they give us don’t mean exactly what we thought they did.

The latest confusion comes from the Twitter account “wild (tiktok) screenshots” on X (aka Twitter), who posted this:

So, here’s the deal. When you see a 30 percent chance of rain, you might think it means there’s a 30 percent chance of rain in your area. But in reality, it’s not that simple. According to a TikTok video (which isn’t quite accurate), a 30 percent chance of rain actually means that there is a 100 percent chance of rain in a certain area, but it will only rain on 30 percent of that area.